What deters a would-be criminal? One's own conscience, for a start. Obviously, that's not always enough. The fear of getting caught, of getting arrested, of disappointing the people who love you, of being ostracized by society at large.
In order to deter crime effectively, punishment needs to be "sure, swift and severe". Cesare Beccaria codified this philosophy in the 18th century. Yet even he realized that the "severe" component of this trilogy had the weakest impact. Punishment needs to be severe enough to loom in the mind (i.e. not just a slap on the wrist), but any increase in severity will have no measurable impact on future deterrence.
Of course, the justice system in our modern society continues to put emphasis on the severity of its punishments, increasing the length of prison sentences, despite the ineffectiveness of this course of action. In fact, it is counter-productive. Prisons are over-crowded, judges become reluctant to hand out effective sentences to "first-time offenders". Punishment is no longer "sure", in fact it is very avoidable if one has a good lawyer. Add to that the typical delays of the court system, and the swiftness of punishment becomes a joke.
A recent New Yorker article (Don't Shoot, June 22, 2009) describes a program designed to curb gang violence and public drug sales by focusing police actions. Rather than the typical maneuver of arresting one or two people (who are sure to be released in a day or two), the police will adopt a policy of zero-tolerance. The police will target all dealers, all gang members, and arrest everyone complicit. This will happen every time a crime is committed. There will be no letting up. The vital component of this program is convincing the gangs that the police will seriously apply its provisions - that punishment will be swift and inescapable. And it works despite the fact the severity of this punishment is unchanged.
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